Carly MurphyOrange, Calif.—Chapman University’s 47th annual Economic Forecast, presented on Dec. 12, 2024 by President Emeritus Jim Doti and colleagues, delivered insights into the economic outlook for 2025. The forecast predicts a slight decline in the median Orange County home price, inflation rising to 3%, and steady economic growth without a recession.
The presentation, led by Doti and Professors Fadel Lawandy and Raymond Sfeir of the Argyros College of Business and Economics, also projected a 12.9% increase in residential building permits for Orange County, even as housing affordability remains a significant challenge.
“While inflation is expected to rise, the Federal Reserve will only reduce the federal funds rate by 75 more basis points,” Doti said.
The forecast projects a slight drop in Orange County’s median home prices and low resale inventory as many homeowners hold onto favorable mortgage rates. Meanwhile, new construction is expected to drive activity in the housing market.
“Affordability remains a key issue, with California ranking last in the nation,” Sfeir said. “Median family incomes are now only 50% of what’s needed to purchase a median-priced home.”
For apartment investors, the forecast noted improving returns and normalizing vacancy rates, signaling a more favorable environment.
National real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, down from 2.7% this year. Despite tighter monetary policies, deficit spending continues to bolster spending, mitigating the risk of a recession.
“Expansionary fiscal policy is supporting short-term growth, but the long-term impact of rising deficits will need to be addressed,” Doti said.
The forecast also flagged potential risks from the volatile cryptocurrency market, where significant millennial investment could amplify economic challenges if a market correction occurs.
During the event, Chapman announced the establishment of the Alexander E. Hayden School of Real Estate, funded by a $5 million gift from alumnus Alex Hayden, class of 1995. The new school will enhance real estate education, attract leading faculty and strengthen ties with the industry.
“This new school will house our MS of Real Estate program and related real estate courses,” said President Daniela Struppa. “It is a transformational gift that propels us forward, helping us to surpass the $400 million milestone in our comprehensive campaign. We are grateful to Alex for this lasting impact.”
The event also revisited Chapman’s 2024 presidential election prediction, which overestimated the incumbent party’s anticipated results. Doti attributed the miss to underestimating the effects of inflation.
Chapman University’s Economic Forecast, produced by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research ranks No. 1 among Blue Chip survey participants for real GDP projections and No. 2 for unemployment rates and housing starts.
The full forecast can be viewed online.
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About Chapman University
Founded in 1861, Chapman University is a nationally ranked private university in Orange, California, about 30 miles south of Los Angeles. Chapman serves nearly 10,000 undergraduate and graduate students, with a 12:1 student-to-faculty ratio. Students can choose from 123 areas of study within 11 colleges for a personalized education. Chapman is categorized by the Carnegie Classification as an R2 “high research activity” institution. Students at Chapman learn directly from distinguished world-class faculty including Nobel Prize winners, MacArthur fellows, published authors and Academy Award winners. The campus has produced a Rhodes Scholar, been named a top producer of Fulbright Scholars and hosts a chapter of Phi Beta Kappa, the nation’s oldest and most prestigious honor society. Chapman also includes the Harry and Diane Rinker Health Science Campus in Irvine. The university features the No. 4 film school and No. 66 business school in the U.S. Learn more about Chapman University: www.chapman.edu.
Media Contact:
Carly Murphy, Public Relations Coordinator | carmurphy@chapman.edu | Desk: 714-289-3196 | Mobile: 714-497-9683
