Dawn BonkerU.S. job growth and hiring will inch upward and California will enjoy some protection from the European debt crisis thanks to the growth of several Pacific Rim trading partners, according to Chapman University’s 2012 Economic Forecast Update, presented Wednesday, June 27.
“California is not as much dependent on what’s happening in the Eurozone and with the Euro,” said Esmael Adibi, Ph.D., director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research. Because California’s top trading partners are Mexico, Canada, China and Japan, it will be able to better absorb repercussions from Europe, Adibi said.
Moreover, housing prices are gradually recovering, which will boost household net worth and generate consumer spending, said President Jim Doti, Ph.D. The combination of those factors are key to the recovery, Doti said.
“Housing prices will be on the upward pressure and that is why next year we are forecasting nationally, on average a 4.1 percent increase. That may not seem like much, especially given the big, big declines that happened when the bubble first burst. Nonetheless, it’s our first real appreciation,” Doti said.
The Anderson Center forecast update was presented to a record update crowd of more than 850 business people, local leaders and policy-makers at the Hilton Orange County in Costa Mesa. The center generates its annual forecast and the mid-year update using the Chapman Economic Model, created in 1978 by Dr. Doti and his students. It was the first quarterly econometric model for a metropolitan area and is still used to create the annual forecasts and updates.
To read a summary of the forecast update, visit the A. Gary Anderson Center.
Media coverage of the forecast can be found in the Los Angeles Times, Orange County Register, Daily Pilot, Orange County Business Journal, OCMetro, and U-T San Diego.
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