Shadow Open Market Committee conference
Presenters at the Shadow Open Market Committee Conference with organizer and Chapman Professor Marc Weidenmier, far right, and Argyros School of Business and Economics Dean Henrik Cronqvist, middle.

Chapman University’s 2023 Shadow Open Market Conference Tackles Tight Money, Persistent Inflation, and a Credit Crunch Tyler Goodspeed Delivers Keynote Address

Chapman University’s Argyros School of Business and Economics, nationally ranked No. 60 by U.S. News & World Report for its placement and earnings of graduates and achievements of entering students and opinions by business schools, hosted the June 16 Shadow Open Market Committee Conference, a premier event for economists. The conference featured Tyler Goodspeed, 2020-2021 acting chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, as the distinguished keynote speaker. 

Argyros Dean Henrik Cronqvist kicked off the conference noting that the Shadow Open Market Committee was formed 50 years ago to offer alternative opinions on monetary policy.

“Although 50 years have gone by, I feel it’s fair to say that some of the most important topics in the economy related to interest rates, monetary policy, inflation, economic growth, and the relevance of a debate on those topics has never been more relevant,” he said.

The conference encompassed a series of discussions and panels that covered a wide range of topics with a diverse audience of industry professions, leading economic experts, and academics. Under the guidance of Marc Weidenmier, who holds the David and Sandra Stone Professorship in Economics, attendees delved into the Federal Reserve’s tightening, Fed forecasting and policy making, the costs and benefits of quantitative easing, and the rising importance of credit policies. The speakers and panelists included prominent economists and researchers, such as Goodspeed, chief economist at Greenmantle; Michael Bordo, professor of economics at Rutgers University; Deborah Lucas, professor of finance at MIT Sloan School of Management; Andrew Levin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College; Mikhail Chernov, professor of finance at UCLA; Mickey Levy, chief economist for Americas and Asia at Berenberg Capital; and Miguel Zerecero, assistant professor of economics at UC Irvine. 

Michael Bordo, professor of economics at Rutgers University said, “the economy has remained resilient with strong growth in aggregate demand, [and] it has sustained rapid gains in employment. Inflation has receded from the peak but remains “sticky high.”

The highlight of the conference was the keynote address delivered by Goodspeed, whose expertise and experience provided insights into the policy recommendations that will shape the economic landscape in the coming year. When asked what the chances of a recession are, Goodspeed said that because next year is an election year, policymakers “are going to be very reluctant to risk a recession heading into 2024.” He settled on a 33% chance, nodding to a running joke by Chapman President Emeritus Jim Doti that many economists estimate a 40% chance of inflation.

Mary Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, delivered the keynote address at the previous year’s conference. The inclusion of influential figures like Goodspeed’s and Daly’s reflect the caliber of speakers at Chapman’s SOMC event. The success of the conference was evident through the active participation of attendees, who benefited from the diverse perspectives and rigorous analysis presented by the esteemed panelists. The event offers a platform for networking amongst industry professionals, fostering collaboration, and encouraging the exchange of ideas that will drive advancements in economics and public policy. 

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About Chapman University

Founded in 1861, Chapman University is a nationally ranked private university located in Southern California. Chapman is categorized by the Carnegie Classification as an R2 “high research activity” institution and offers personalized education to more than 9,000 undergraduate and graduate students. The campus has produced a Rhodes Scholar, been named a top producer of Fulbright Scholars, and hosts a chapter of Phi Beta Kappa, the nation’s oldest and most prestigious honor society. Based in the City of Orange, Chapman also includes the Harry and Diane Rinker Health Science Campus in Irvine. In 2019, the university opened its 11th college, Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler School of Engineering, in its newest facility, Keck Center for Science and Engineering. Learn more about Chapman University: www.chapman.edu.

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